Wednesday, 5 January 2011

New climate paper predicts that Global Warming by 2100 will be at most one eighth of that predicted by the IPCC .

  On Recovery from the Little Ice Age is the title of a new climate paper by Dr Syun-Ichi Akasofu of the International Arctic Research Centre at the University of Alaska Fairbanks in which the author predicts that multi decadal oscillations superimposed on the natural recovery from the Little Ice Age(which ended about 1850) will mean that by 2100 the temperature will be around 0.5C+/-0.2C higher than today.  This compares with the IPCC prediction of a temperature of 4.0C+/-0.2C a factor of eight higher than that predicted by Dr Akasofu.  Published in Natural Science December 2010 vol2,no11 (1211-1224), significantly he says that as much as 83 percent of the recovery from the LIA recorded in the last century is due to natural sources. While there is a linear temperature trend from 1880 to 2000 the peaks in 1940 and again in 2000 are due to multidecadal oscillations temporarily halting the recovery. In 1940 a cooling developed which lasted until 1977 when the earth experienced the great climate shift as the oscillations reversed into a warming mode which now into the 21st century has reversed again to a cooling mode into a possible mini ice age.

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